Does anyone else think America is going to war in a few years, or is it just the U.S. military that believes that? I don’t mean it in a gung-ho marine “oorah," military-readiness way in which America’s armies say they should always be prepared. Oh no, this is because the budget put forth by President Trump and Pete Hesgeth is the most colossal in U.S. history.

For some years now, I have recalled people joking about America’s trillion-dollar-defense budget, but those were jokes: the military budget for fiscal year 2026 put forth by President Trump is $1.01 trillion, a sheer 13% increase from the previous year (which was approximately $850 billion). When people hear about the “billions" the U.S. spends, those numbers are often lost in translation. For reference, in 2024, Russia spent $149 billion on its war in Ukraine.

Thus, the U.S. military budget increased by a factor of the Russian Federation’s whole war effort. That 13% increase hadn’t been seen since Reagan was trying to out-build the USSR in the Cold War. In 1980, the defense budget was 141.2 billion, and the “giant” 12.8% increase brought the budget up to $157.8 billion – so… not comparable.

Though Hesgeth and President Trump spoke about cutting expenditures throughout the whole U.S. government, it seems the Pentagon was able to convince them that they needed the whole military budget of the wartime Russian Federation for some reason, which could be figured out if we take a look at the 1.01 trillion-dollar budget request sent to Congress.

Thank you, Perun, an excellent, informative channel on YouTube that covers military expenditures and geopolitics and highlights the line items. He found that the trillion-dollar budget was almost entirely directed at the U.S. Pacific Command: buying missiles, drastically increasing capacity for making missiles, building war-boats, and drastically increasing the capacity for making boats. Drones, A.I. investment, more submarines and…. no tanks. Rather, the Pentagon has decided to cut its Booker Light Tank program that it has been working on for some years now. Perun also discovered that in the “Enhancement of Department of Defense Resources to Improve Indo-Pacific Command area of the budget request,” there were items listed there such as: “30 million dollars to improve reconnaissance in U.S. Africa Command.”

Huh.

So a whole extra Russian Federation wartime budget of weapons for the Pacific.

Likely, it is clear that the United States enjoys a few adversaries here or there around the world, but the only one in that region of the world is the People’s Republic of China. Before those who try to “look at the bright side," and argue against the possibility of war decry this article, I'm going to make fun of China for pretending to be a republic to begin to make my point.

Xi Jinping is, in loose terms, not fireable from his position, nor can others be elected to his position, or any other position without his permission. There is certainly a word for this sort of role, and it has very little to do with a republic government type.  

This is a very important point. To speak on its importance is a person with an intense amount of credibility:

The Professor of History and Grand Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, Sarah C.M. Paine, specializes in Naval History, Maritime Strategy, and East Asian Geopolitics. When she was asked if a war with China was near, she said:

“Xi Jinping told his military to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027. When a dictator says they are going to do something, believe them.”

The first most credible person on this topic is Xi Jinping himself, who said that his military needed to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

The United States doesn’t have an explicit defense treaty with Taiwan. Instead, it has the TRA, or the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979, in which the U.S. is obliged to provide weapons to the island nation to defend itself. And, in the event of a Chinese Invasion, the President is required by law to report that to Congress, who will decide what to do with that information.

Certainly, there is nothing in there that states American soldiers will go to fight, and likely die in a horrible war – but it is also ambiguous enough that maybe that is what will happen. Taiwan is still, and very much so, the world's leading provider of extremely advanced computer chips, from which the most advanced computers, AI, and weapons are made. It would be in the U.S.’s best interest to prevent what is the current most valuable production hub in the world from falling into China’s hands. This is especially relevant as quoted by no one other than Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin: “Artificial Intelligence is the future, not only for Russia, but for all humankind. Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become ruler of the world.”

Elon Musk and Bill Gates have both spoken to the impending power of AI, and Taiwan is the center for that capability.

There is one more thing to note: still taught in military war colleges is a razor called a “Thucydidean Trap," named after the ancient Athenian general and historian, “Thucydides.” The idea was coined when he spoke about why the ancient city-states Athens and Sparta went to war: it was because as both nation-states grew, their interests over the same resources overlapped. Athens and Sparta both had a growth rate of local resources (food, timber, marble, etc.) – or a “consumption rate" of resources – that they needed to keep up to maintain their growth. And, because there was nowhere else to get those resources except for the same spot between them, war is as inevitable as breathing.

The industry in Taiwan would take decades to replace, and that would be decades that our tech, powerful weapons, and AI lag behind if the U.S. lets it fall.

Vladimir Putin proclaimed the importance –nay, the dominance of those who possess A.I.,

Xi Jinping has instructed his military to be ready to take the island by 2027.

Renowned Professor Sarah Paine, who is an extremely credible person on the topic, has told us to believe dictators.

Oh, and the biggest tell of all is the Pentagon seems to be readying itself for its first war in the Pacific by increasing its Indo-Pacific budget by $150 billion – the whole value of Russia’s yearly war budget in Ukraine, bringing it up to a real $1.01 trillion. Cutting tanks, adding subs and missile-boats.

By the tried-and-true reasoning of a Thucydidean Trap, war is coming.

Austin Petak is an aspiring novelist and freelance journalist who loves seeking stories and the quiet passions of the soul. If you are interested in reaching out to him to cover a story, you may find him at austinpetak@gmail.com.

Opinions expressed by columnists in The Daily Record are not necessarily those of its management or staff, and do not constitute an endorsement or recommendation. Any errors or omissions should be called to our attention so that they may be corrected. Contact us at news@omahadailyrecord.com.