An economist who runs monthly surveys across the Midwest is predicting slower retail growth this holiday season, although a decline in sales isn’t forecast.

Ernie Goss, an economist at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business, expects retail sales to grow by 3-4% overall this holiday shopping season, with e-commerce sales growing by about 14% over last year.

That forecast contrasts with an estimate by national accounting firm Deloitte, which is predicting a 4.5-5% growth in retail sales accompanying a boost of 14-18% for e-commerce sales, based on its annual holiday retail survey.

Both agree that the good times may not last indefinitely. Deloitte says its first takeaway is, “Short-term consumer sentiment is positive, but headwinds are forming.”

Goss said consumers should take precautions because a slowing economy and high debt loads.

“You’re not going to see low interest rates on your credit card,” Goss said. “So, if you carry a balance, which I highly recommend against, don’t carry a balance on your credit card. Those interest rates are out of sight.

Goss said a slowing growth in the gross domestic product signals slower economic growth, which could increase unemployment, even as retail sales keep growing.

E-commerce is expected to be a clear winner this holiday season, although an analysis by small business technology service provider Womply found that local retailers do best in the days leading up to Christmas – when those one- and two-day shipping promises become harder to trust.

“Local brick-and-mortar retailers in Omaha still have one major advantage over e-commerce this holiday season: last-minute shopping,” according to a release.

Womply found that Nebraska retailers experienced the highest level of consumer spending the last full week before Christmas.  

From Black Friday to Christmas Eve, the average retailer in Omaha sees $956 in daily revenue – or 7.7% over the average, the company said. Small shops also get a boost from Black Friday, the seventh biggest sales day a year, even with 29% of local retailers closed for the holiday.

Overall, the National Retail Federation predicts holiday shoppers between 35 and 44 plan to spend the most this year on the holidays – a total of $1,158.

Only about a fifth of consumers plan to spend less this year, Deloitte found, with only 7% citing a concern about the economy as a reason for spending less; most say they want to save more.

“Despite potential future headwinds,” Deloitte said, “the holiday season should be cheerful.”